The 2026 holiday shipping season is underway. For eCommerce businesses, the challenge is familiar: process more orders while keeping warehouse and parcel costs predictable.
This year, some carrier demand surcharges began in September and additional charges started in October. Meanwhile, retail forecasters expect another busy November and December. Sellers should look at both parts of the operation: what it costs to prepare each order and what carriers charge to deliver it.
1. FedEx Demand Surcharges Are Already in Effect
FedEx's published 2026–2027 demand surcharge schedule includes certain U.S. package surcharges effective September 28, 2026, and additional demand charges beginning October 26. The applicable amount depends on service type, shipment characteristics and the effective date. Some charges rise again during the busiest weeks in November and December.
Not every surcharge applies to every shipment. Start by reviewing your actual package profile and carrier agreement, rather than applying one average surcharge to every order.
Check these items in particular:
- Residential and delivery-area characteristics
- Additional-handling and oversize triggers
- Billable weight, dimensions and packaging choices
- Shipping method and carrier service level
- The effective date of each applicable demand charge
Practical next step: Pull a sample of recent shipments and recalculate them using the current carrier surcharge schedule. That gives you a more useful estimate than applying a blanket peak-season percentage.
Source: FedEx — Demand Surcharges.
2. The Holiday Sales Outlook Is Strong — But It Is Still a Forecast
On October 15, 2026, the National Retail Federation forecast a 4.2% increase in November–December U.S. holiday retail sales over 2025, to approximately $1.013 trillion. These are projected retail sales, not a measure of parcel volumes or a guarantee of orders for any individual brand.
A busy season can expose small operational gaps: late inbound inventory, insufficient pick-face stock, packaging shortages and missed carrier cutoffs. Demand planning should translate into warehouse actions before promotions start.
A useful planning check is to identify the SKUs most likely to drive order volume, then compare forecast demand with available-to-sell inventory and replenishment lead times.
Source: NRF — 2026 Holiday Sales Forecast, October 15, 2026.
3. Inventory Location Matters — But More Warehouses Are Not Always Better
Where you hold inventory can affect shipping distance, available service options and replenishment needs. A second fulfillment location may help certain brands serve different regions, but it also splits stock and requires reliable inventory visibility.
Before distributing inventory across locations, evaluate:
- Where most orders are delivered
- Which SKUs sell in each region
- Order volume and average units per order
- Replenishment frequency and transfer costs
- Available inventory by warehouse
For a smaller operation, one facility may be the simpler and more economical choice. The right setup depends on actual shipping data, not simply the number of warehouses on a provider's network map.
4. Compare Total Fulfillment Cost, Not Only the Advertised Pick Rate
A 3PL quote should separate warehouse services from carrier postage. Look at receiving, storage, picking, order processing, packaging, special handling, returns and shipping as different cost components.
The number of units in an order also matters. A single-item order and a multi-item order can carry different handling and packing costs. Compare proposals using the same order mix, product dimensions, average order weight and shipment destinations — an apples-to-apples comparison.
For a clearer quotation, prepare a small data set showing monthly orders, SKU count, average units per order, inventory volume and common destination ZIP codes. Ask each provider to quote against the same assumptions.
5. Plan for Returns Before the Holiday Rush
Returns are part of the fulfillment cycle, not an afterthought. The warehouse needs instructions for identifying incoming returns, checking condition, recording inventory, restocking eligible items and holding products that require further review.
Confirm what is included in the returns processing rate and how exceptions are reported. A clear return workflow helps customer service teams give more accurate answers and prevents returned stock from appearing available before it has been processed.
6. What to Review With Your 3PL Now
A useful pre-holiday discussion covers inbound appointment availability, expected daily orders, carrier pickup schedules, replenishment plans, packaging materials, inventory accuracy and escalation contacts. Set expectations about what happens if volume exceeds the forecast.
RUKAI Logistics provides U.S. warehousing and fulfillment services through five public facilities across California, Texas, Georgia and New Jersey. We support inventory receiving, storage, eCommerce order processing and outbound shipping coordination, with quotes based on the customer's actual operating profile.
Final Takeaway
The 2026 peak season is a good time to examine total order economics. The biggest improvements often come from practical decisions: better inventory placement, accurate package data, clearer handling rules and better cost visibility.
Need help reviewing your U.S. fulfillment setup? Explore our 3PL and eCommerce fulfillment services, review our pricing overview or request a quote based on your order profile.
Preparing earlier in the year instead? Our Q3 preparation checklist covers carrier capacity, inventory audits, tech-stack testing, staffing and returns readiness: Peak Season Prep: 5 Things Every Brand Should Do By Q3.
Sources
- FedEx — Demand Surcharges (2026–2027 schedule)
- National Retail Federation — 2026 Holiday Sales Forecast (October 15, 2026)
Information is current as of October 28, 2026. Carrier charges and operational availability vary by shipment, carrier agreement, service and date. Images are illustrative.
